Proven Strategies
Mathematics. Historical Data. Probability. Technology.
How The S.G.C. Methodology Works
Sports Guru Consulting’s approach is based around mathematical and statistical sports handicapping combined with predictive technology and artificial intelligence.
The historical methodology described analyzing opening point spreads, moneylines and totals across the four major sports using historical information dating back to approximately 1993.
Rather than relying on public opinion or emotional interpretation of a matchup, the methodology attempts to convert large volumes of historical sports and market information into probability estimates that can be compared against current betting markets.
Convert historical sports and market information into probability estimates—then compare those estimates with current betting markets.
Historical inputs
Mathematical rules
Probability output
Decades Of Historical Sports Data
The methodology evaluates historical Las Vegas betting information and feeds relevant information into probability models.
Mathematical rules are applied to help organize and interpret the information while attempting to minimize bias.
Approximate starting point of the historical data set
Football, basketball, baseball and hockey
Point spread, moneyline and total / over-under
Categories of information evaluated by the model
The S.G.C. Probability Function
Sports Guru Consulting employs an established mathematical model to try to find value across different betting markets. Here is how that process happens.
Gather & Clean Historical Data
We aggregate historical lines, scores, and situational data.
Evaluate Current Market Odds
We compare projected probability against the live betting lines.
Determine Value Thresholds
Calculated edge indicates if a selection qualifies for our matrix.
Seven Categories Of Analysis
The methodology can incorporate the following categories of information. These categories are inputs to a probability model, they are not guaranteed predictors of any outcome.
Historical Betting Lines
Opening and closing spreads, moneylines and totals recorded over decades of sports seasons.
Team Performance
Results, situational records and trends across schedules and matchups.
Player / Personnel Updates
Availability, roles and personnel changes that can influence a matchup.
Statistical Performance
Pricing Cycles
Proprietary Information
Situational & Intangible Factors
Where Probability Percentages Are Calculated
Over / Under
Moneyline
Point Spread
Margin-based outcomes measured against the posted line.
Identifying Higher-Probability Situations
The historical Sports Guru Consulting methodology describes identifying situations where its calculated probability reaches approximately 80% or higher.
The company historically associated those situations with an approximately 60–62% success ratio.
Historical company-reported figures. Not guaranteed future results. Sports wagering involves risk and users can lose money.
Company-reported historical success ratio on qualifying selections
Past performance does not guarantee future results
See How The S.G.C. Matrix Works
Consult with our team to understand how our mathematical model evaluates and surfaces higher-probability situations across sports markets.
Probability, Not Guesswork
Sports Guru Consulting provides information and consulting services for adults age 21 and older.
Sports Guru Consulting does not accept wagers, process bets or pay gambling winnings.
Sports wagering involves risk and there is no guarantee of profit.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call (702) 371-7056